Two years after the AUKUS agreement was announced, it is still unclear whether it will deliver the benefits what the three countries hope for. The agreement aims to create an Australian nuclear-powered submarine capability and enhance defence cooperation on emerging technologies.
The lesson learned from the last two years is that in the haste to “get a deal” basic issues related to the industrial base and the role of arms export regulations were ignored.: There are a number of challenges that need to be addressed in order for AUKUS to proceed. One challenge is the weakness of the US submarine industrial base. The US Navy has struggled to build Virginia-class submarines at a rate that meets its needs, and the Columbia-class replacement for the Ohio-class SSBN will further strain undersea production capabilities.
Another challenge is the International Trafficking in Arms Regulations (ITAR). ITAR is a US export control regime that can make it difficult to share technology with allies. This is a particular problem for AUKUS, as it aims to create a new alliance of democracies that can counter and deter potential adversary states.
The Biden administration has not offered a comprehensive plan to address these challenges. The few reforms that have been offered so far have not been serious or implementable.
Here are some current specific issues:
- Congress needs to seriously consider an alternative capital budgeting mechanism to lock in long-term funding for submarine industrial base investments.
- The AUKUS partners may have to take another look at how best to increase the number of submarines on station in this decade. This could include extending the life of Los Angeles-class submarines while jointly manning them, extending production of the UK's Astute line, and rapidly developing and deploying unmanned undersea systems.
- A new export control regime may be required for the AUKUS nations. Control over this regime should be taken away from the State Department and moved to another agency, which would be directly overseen by the National Security Council.
If all of these things happen, AUKUS in its current state can still eventuate. However, if the US and its allies continue to ignore the challenges facing AUKUS, the agreement may be a footnote to history. see more here. AUKUS may well be the scandal of the century, delivering a windfall to defence manufacturers and an army of consultants, agents and influence brokers with no real benefit to Australia’s defence. We just don’t know.
But all of these obstacles have not quelled the hysteria in Australia fomented in the myriad secret ("Chatham House Rules") meetings now occurring here.
For example, a so-called “masterclass” series was offered last month by the University of Western Australia’s Defence and Security Institute. For $2,000 participants were able to hear about the impact and “opportunities” of AUKUS from serving Australian admirals, senior public servants and academics working in nuclear-related subjects. There was a swag of current and former politicians from both sides of the house. These included (as advertised) the former ALP leader Kim Beazley and the former Liberal defence minister David Johnston.
So in Australia AUKUS is producing a heightened activity - if not alliance - involving defence, business and academic interests behind closed doors at the supposed behest of "the national interest". However, there is no investigative journalism unpicking the veil nor any of its claims that manage to filter through. One example is about discovering the details of PM Albo's assertion that AUKUS will create some 20,000 well-paid union jobs mentioned most recently at the ALP national conference. So where are these jobs?
UK shipbuilder BAE Systems, which runs several major projects at once, employs a total of 10,000 people. How Albo came up with 20,000 is beyond any media scrutiny and appears to defy reality. However, none of the mainstream media has raised this. One wonders how far the vested interests go.
One might suppose that right-wing Murdoch media at least would have a go at Albo, but all I'm hearing is crickets.
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