Australia spending $20billion on AUKUS >10 years ahead of seeing a single sub

 Just in case you missed it, back in March 2023 Albo promised to spend A$6 billion over the next four years to expand a major submarine base and Australia's submarine shipyards, as well as train skilled workers.

That is on top of providing another  A$3 billion to expand shipbuilding capacity in the U.S. and Britain, with the bulk of the money "destined to speed up production of U.S. Virginia-class submarines."

So that's $9billion.

For nothing.

And let's not forget the $835 million settlement with Naval Group for the dumped $90 billion French submarine program .

And it doesn't stop there. Over the next four years, the Albanese Government will sink another  $10billion  to implement the immediate priorities identified in response to the Defence Strategic Review (and AUKUS).

These include:

• $4.1 billion for long-range strike capabilities.
• $3.8 billion for northern base infrastructure.
• $400 million to support Australian Defence Force personnel through a new continuation bonus.
• $900 million on defence innovation, to establish the Advanced Strategic Capabilities Accelerator and through AUKUS Pillar 2.

So close to $20billion all up. That's at least 10 years before we see a single sub.

Somehow, methinks the eventual $368 billion figure compares unfavourably to the oft-quoted $90 billion that the cancelled French submarine project was going to cost.

So that might be value for money EXCEPT with nearly 40 percent of America’s attack submarines out of commission and new construction struggling to increase, it begs the question of whether and how Australia will receive this unprecedented capability and tech-sharing to deter Beijing anytime this decade. 

AEI (American Enterprise Institute: a US right wing libertarian public policy think tank) is now saying that's not enough money: "But absent enough dollars and manufacturing capacity, fast, the deal could wind up exacerbating our attack sub shortfall and therefore fall apart." "Plagued by maintenance and construction delays, America’s submarine yards are underperforming relative to historic recapitalization rates....While the Navy set a 30-year goal for a fleet with 66 nuclear-powered attack submarines, today we have just 49 (and dropping). Worse yet, only 31 of these are operationally ready as years of maintenance delays have culminated in a shipyard logjam that will take years to resolve."

"The submarine industrial base isn’t equipped to build the number of submarines the Navy needs. While COVID-19 has passed, a return to pre-pandemic production has yet to materialize. The pandemic accelerated a generational turnover in the shipyard and supplier workforce. Now the submarine industrial base must hire 100,000 skilled employees over the next decade; no small feat."

"The detailed implications of AUKUS along with a thorough industrial base modernization blueprint should be presented to Congress before it authorizes permanent submarine transfers. If the White House does not start this serious work now, the submarine transfer in 2024 is at risk. Keeping AUKUS on track firstly requires a unified partnership of Congress, the Navy, and the White House. "

So for close to $20billion already spent or committed we may see nothing at all.