Some observations about
provocation
•
On top
of Australia’s rapidly expanding military expenditure, the AUKUS agreement
could be seen by China as a provocation, as it could give Australia access to
more advanced military technology, such as nuclear-powered submarines. This
could make Australia a more capable military power in the region, which could
in turn lead to China taking a more aggressive stance towards Australia. That
aggression would more than likely be addressed by increased military spending.
According to Australia Institute’s International Security Affairs head, Allan
Behm, ‘China will view Australia’s decision as a wilful contribution to an
existential nuclear threat to China’.[1]
•
Escalating
US arms sales to Taiwan may be interpreted by China as provocation rather than
deterrent.
•
As it
does not make sense for China to disrupt shipping to Australia via the South
China Sea it also does not make sense for Australia or its allies to consider
threats of that disruption as a legitimate provocation.
•
Escalating
arms sales and supplies, both to Australia and Taiwan (as promoted by Lockheed
Martin and its beneficial owners), are the predominant provocation of tensions
potentially leading to conflict. Most scholarly work concludes that arms sales
exacerbate instability and increase the likelihood of conflict. By selling
advanced weaponry to Taiwan and Australia, the United States hopes to balance
rising Chinese power and promote regional stability. However, an underlying
driver is to shift the balance of power in a direction more favourable to
American (weapons supplier) interests.
•
August
2023’s military operations in the South
China Sea (attended by Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles) which saw Australia's
largest warship take part in joint drills with the Philippines and the United
States must be considered as particularly provocative.[2] The
United States gaining access to four additional Philippine military bases (announced
in April 2023) exacerbates this, as these bases are strategically located near
Taiwan and the contested Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.[3]
•
A
recent example of the effect of provocative activity is seen in the action of
North Korea on 30 August 2023 in response to annual defensive South Korea-U.S.
combined drills. North Korea conducted a simulated "scorched-earth"
nuclear strike on targets across South Korea by firing two short-range
ballistic missiles into the sea hours after the U.S. deployed B-1B bombers for
allied air drills.[4]
Comments
Post a Comment