The arms industry expansion is not confined to the US and its allies. It appears that it has influence over political decisions of hostile nations too. One wonders whether this ramping up of arms proliferation has been as a result of the US strengthening its influence in the South China Sea directly and via the allies it has and hopes to have to quell China's supposed aggression in that region. Another influencing factor may be the US (and Australia's) arms support for Ukraine and the moves to strengthen NATO in Europe,
This morning I read that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is planning to travel to Russia this month to meet President Vladimir Putin and discuss supplying Moscow with weapons for the war in Ukraine.
The trip would be Kim's first overseas visit since before the COVID-19 pandemic. It would also be notable if he travels to Russia, rather than his main ally and trade partner China.
The two leaders would discuss Kim's sending Russia artillery shells and anti-tank missiles in exchange for Moscow's advanced technology for satellites and nuclear-powered submarines.
The news of Kim's planned visit comes after Russia said it was discussing holding joint military exercises with North Korea.
South Korea's foreign ministry said it was monitoring developments and said United Nations member states should not violate sanctions, including through arms deals.
The Kremlin said last week that Moscow intends to deepen its "mutually respectful relations" with Pyongyang.
The United States said last week it was concerned that arms negotiations between Russia and North Korea were advancing actively. In fact, it said, "North Korea will ‘pay a price’ if it supplies arms to Russia".
North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests since 2006 and had been testing various missiles over recent years but it rarely holds military exercises with its neighbours.
The United States and its ally, South Korea, hold regular military exercises, which North Korea denounces as preparations for war against it.
See more at North Korea's Kim to meet Putin as Russia to discuss weapons sales
So is this the start of moves towards a new powerful alliance of nuclear powers to counter US influence in the South Pacific? Time magazine has published an article today discussing the impact of Russia, China, and North Korea holding joint naval exercises in the Indo-Pacific.
The proposal was made by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in July. China has not yet commented on the proposal, and there is no indication that Kim has agreed to it. For North Korea, this would mark the first such large-scale drills since the end of the Korean War in the 1950s, though North Korea does stand to benefit the most from joining forces with comparatively more modernized militaries.
The proposal is seen as a response to the recently formalized U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral defense alliance. The Indo-Pacific region has become a theater of several security flashpoints, including China's increasing military presence in the region and North Korea's nuclear program.
Some experts believe that the trilateral naval exercises would be more of a diplomatic gesture than a preparation for war. They say that the three countries have different interests, and that they would not want to escalate tensions in the region. Some say it could actually have a stabilizing effect by creating a check on each of the parties from instigating conflict unilaterally.
Other experts are concerned that the exercises could lead to a more formal alliance between Russia, China, and North Korea. They say that this could further destabilize the region and make it more difficult to achieve peace on the Korean peninsula.
It is still too early to say whether the trilateral naval exercises will take place. However, the proposal and implications for the formation of a counter- alliance has raised concerns among many countries in the Indo-Pacific region. Additionally, it could have a significant impact on the region by further forcing smaller states in the region, who have long abided by principles of non-alignment, to pick a side. Obviously, that would tend to expand the available markets for the arms industry.
While US arms manufacturers have strict restrictions to exporting products that should prevent Russia, China and North Korea obtaining them directly, there are a number of ways that products could end up there. One way is through illegal arms sales. There is a black market for weapons and military equipment, and it is possible that US-produced products have been sold on this market. Another way is through diversion. This is when a product is legally exported to a country, but then it is illegally diverted to another country. For example, a US product could be exported to a country in Europe, but then it could be diverted to Russia. It is also possible that US products have been sold to a country that is not a prohibited destination, but then those products have been resold to China, Russia, and/or North Korea. For example, a US product could be sold to Turkey, but then it could be resold to Iran. It is known that the largest importer of US arms, Saudi Arabia, and its coalition partners have transferred American-made weapons to al Qaeda-linked fighters, hardline Salafi militias, and other factions waging war in Yemen, in violation of their agreements with the US.
The black market for weapons and military equipment is very active, and there are always people who are willing to break the law. US arms are not immune from this trade. Sixty per cent of weapons on sale on the ‘dark web’ are from the US, according to a recent report.
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