In a surprise move that sent shockwaves through diplomatic circles, U.S. President Donald J. Trump announced an executive review of the trilateral AUKUS security pact, effectively freezing progress on Australia’s plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines under the agreement. Though the announcement has rattled Washington’s traditional allies, for Canberra, it may be the unexpected reprieve Prime Minister Anthony Albanese needs to walk away from a deal many experts now say was doomed from inception.
The AUKUS pact—signed in 2021 by the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia—was meant to signal a new era of Indo-Pacific deterrence, with Australia as the tip of the spear. But critics across the political spectrum in Australia have long questioned the cost, transparency, and ultimate utility of the agreement. With Trump’s sudden willingness to “renegotiate or revoke” AUKUS, as he put it in a statement from the White House lawn, the Albanese government faces an opportunity to disentangle itself from what many now regard as a deeply flawed commitment.
“Let’s face it, we were never likely to get submarines—certainly not within a workable timeframe,” said Dr. Emma Shortis, Director of International and Security Affairs at The Australia Institute, in an interview. “AUKUS was conceived in secrecy, born in haste, and has matured into a strategic liability.”
A Deal Born in the Shadows
AUKUS was first announced without parliamentary debate or public scrutiny by then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison, alongside President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. At its core, the agreement promised to deliver at least eight nuclear-powered submarines to Australia—vessels previously limited to nuclear powers—and to enhance joint technology sharing in quantum, cyber, and AI.
Yet nearly four years later, even preliminary steps remain mired in bureaucracy. Australia has already paid more than $500 million in early-stage costs and industrial planning fees, but defence analysts say no steel has been cut and no shipyard upgraded to meaningfully accommodate the ambitious project. The promised timeline—initial delivery by the 2040s—has been consistently ridiculed by military planners and economists alike.
Meanwhile, Australia’s strategic needs are immediate. China’s growing naval capacity in the South China Sea, resurgent Russian interest in the Pacific, and a rising tide of non-state threats demand flexible, short-horizon responses—not multibillion-dollar weapons systems a generation away.
“It was a grand illusion,” said a former senior defence procurement officer in Canberra, speaking on condition of anonymity. “The idea that Australia could leapfrog into nuclear propulsion was based on wishful thinking, not logistical reality.”
Public Opinion Shifts
While defence officials and foreign policy hawks championed the AUKUS pact as a strategic masterstroke, public sentiment has soured. Polling conducted by The Australia Institute in the lead-up to last month’s federal election found that 54% of Australians favour a more independent foreign policy over tighter alignment with Washington. Only 15% strongly supported the AUKUS agreement.
Another earlier poll found more Australians viewed Trump as a greater threat to world peace than either Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping—a startling revelation for a nation that has long relied on the U.S. as its ultimate security guarantor.
“There’s a growing discomfort in Australia with the idea that our national security is tethered to the political whims of an increasingly erratic superpower,” said Dr. Melissa Parke, a former federal Labor minister and now senior fellow at the Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies. “Trump’s return to power underscores that concern.”
Trump’s foreign policy unpredictability is, paradoxically, what makes the moment politically useful for Prime Minister Albanese. With the U.S. President now openly criticizing NATO, threatening trade sanctions against European allies, and openly flirting with withdrawal from several multilateral agreements, Australian leaders can more credibly argue that AUKUS no longer aligns with the nation’s long-term security interests.
Financial Deadweight
The cost of AUKUS—an eye-watering A$368 billion—has increasingly come under fire during a period of economic stress, rising living costs, and pressing infrastructure needs. To date, Canberra has already handed over more than A$500 million in early payments, with little to show for it. Even if those funds are unrecoverable, experts say abandoning the pact could save over A$367 billion, funds that could be redirected toward healthcare, housing, and climate resilience.
“AUKUS was never just a defence deal—it was a reorientation of Australia’s entire strategic posture,” said Allan Behm, a former senior defence policy adviser. “The idea that we can quietly extricate ourselves from it because of a Trump policy pivot is something of a political miracle for Albanese.”
Strategic Reassessment
There is also a broader question now facing Canberra: what comes after AUKUS?
Even critics acknowledge Australia will still need to bolster its naval and cybersecurity capabilities in a region fraught with risk. But that need not take the form of a nuclear submarine fleet reliant on 20th-century warfighting paradigms.
Some suggest increased investment in autonomous undersea vehicles, high-speed missile systems, and regional diplomatic alliances—particularly with Southeast Asian nations—could yield better strategic value at a fraction of the cost.
“Walking away from AUKUS isn’t isolationism—it’s realism,” said Dr. Shortis. “We need to reimagine security in ways that serve Australia’s actual interests, not the interests of U.S. defence contractors.”
A Fork in the Road
The Trump administration’s posture may have set the match to a slow-burning fuse. But the ultimate decision rests in Canberra.
In backing away from AUKUS, Prime Minister Albanese would not only be saving hundreds of billions of dollars, but also potentially reclaiming a measure of foreign policy independence not seen since the days of former Prime Minister Gough Whitlam—a prospect that has long animated progressive segments of the Australian electorate.
And while critics of the U.S. alliance have historically struggled for mainstream legitimacy, the combination of Trump’s volatility, escalating global tensions, and fiscal strain may finally tip the balance.
“AUKUS was always a political trap,” said the former defence official. “Ironically, it may be Donald Trump—the very man who so many Australians distrust—who gives us a way out.”
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